People who know the most often sound the least certain

I watched Dwarkesh Patel’s recent conversation with John Schulman, Beren Millidge and Charlie O’Neill this week. For an hour and a half, some of the smartest people working in AI tried to reason, in public, about genuinely difficult questions.

Can AI automate AI research? Can it choose its own research objectives? Does progress hit a wall when the thing we need cannot be turned into a clean reward? What happens when models become better at running experiments but humans are still needed to decide which experiments matter?