Penalty Shootouts: Is the Team That Kicks First More Likely to Win?
Recent statistical analysis of thousands of penalty shootouts suggests that the perceived advantage of kicking first is largely a myth. While earlier studies suggested a psychological edge, modern data indicates that the win probability difference is negligible.
Why it matters
This challenges long-held sports wisdom and demonstrates how data-driven analysis can debunk traditional sports narratives.
While much of the strategic thinking around penalty kicks focuses on the order in which the players kick, it’s also important to note the psychological pressures as well. During this year’s World Cup, two of the first four round-of-32 matches—Paraguay’s win over Germany and Morocco’s defeat of the Netherlands—have been decided by these highly tense shootouts.
The article relies on statistical evidence and academic studies to present an objective analysis of a sports phenomenon.
Get smarter about the news
Sign up free for a feed built around what you actually care about, Dive Deeper research on any story, and the full text of every article.
Create free accountAlready have an account? Sign in