Over 90% chance of Super El Nino, warns MetMalaysia
MetMalaysia has warned of a greater than 90% probability of a 'Super El Nino' event occurring between October and December 2026. This climate phenomenon is expected to bring extreme heat and dry conditions, potentially rivaling the most severe episodes on record.
Why it matters
Extreme climate events pose significant risks to agriculture, water security, and public health in Southeast Asia.
MetMalaysia director-general Hisham Anip said current global climate patterns indicated that the 2026–2027 El Nino could rank among the most extreme events ever recorded. (Bernama pic)
PUTRAJAYA: There is a more than 90% chance of a "Super El Nino" occurring between October and December, which will result in hotter and drier conditions, states the meteorological department (MetMalaysia).
Its director-general Hisham Anip said the forecast was based on a significant upward trend in the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) since the middle of the year, coupled with recent weekly observations showing sea surface temperatures more than 1.8 degrees Celsius above the climatological average.
“This situation indicates that El Nino is continuing to strengthen and is expected to peak towards the end of 2026.
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