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Opinion: Opinion | SCO Was Once Russia's Backyard. How China Is Now Closing In

H
Harsh V Pant
Opinion: Opinion | SCO Was Once Russia's Backyard. How China Is Now Closing In
AI Summary

Central Asia is shifting its geopolitical alignment from a Russia-dominated sphere toward a more China-centric economic landscape. While Russia maintains security and institutional influence, regional states are pursuing multi-vector policies to preserve their strategic autonomy.

Why it matters

This shift represents a major redistribution of power in Eurasia, potentially altering global energy transit and security dynamics.

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Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan - is undergoing a significant geopolitical transformation. The region is moving away from the Russia-dominated order that shaped much of its post-Soviet history towards an increasingly China-centric economic landscape. Yet, this is not a straightforward Chinese takeover. Russia retains substantial security, cultural, and institutional influence, while Central Asian states themselves are pursuing increasingly sophisticated multi-vector policies to preserve strategic autonomy.The emerging order is, therefore, better understood as a redistribution of influence: China is acquiring economic primacy, Russia retains residual strategic leverage, and Central Asian governments are seeking to maximise their room for manoeuvre by diversifying external partnerships. The Ukraine war has accelerated a process that was already underway.From Russia's Backyard, To China'sRussian influence in Central Asia has deep historical roots.

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