OPEC forecasts India’s oil demand to accelerate by 0.06 mb/d in 2026
OPEC forecasts that India's oil demand will grow by 0.06 million barrels per day in 2026, driven by strong economic momentum and increased vehicle sales. While global demand growth forecasts were trimmed, India remains a resilient market for diesel and gasoline consumption.
Why it matters
India's energy consumption trajectory is a critical factor for global oil markets and the country's own economic development strategy.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecast India’s oil demand to accelerate by 0.06 million barrel per day (mb/d) in 2026 from the comparable period last year, and a further 0.4 mb/d in 2027 primarily driven by an overall healthy economic momentum and sustained demand for hydrocarbon fuels.
However, it trimmed their forecast for growth in global oil demand from the previous month. It now forecasts it to grow by approximately 0.4 md/d in 2026 and rebound to grow by about 2.4 mb/d in 2027.
In their monthly update, OPEC observed that India’s domestic growth momentum stayed resilient buoyed by “robust domestic demand and strong services” notwithstanding global trade uncertainties and geopolitical headwinds.
OPEC’s forecast of India’s oil demand accelerating by 0.06 mb/d to an average 5.7 mb/d in 2026 primarily hinges on gasoline and diesel consumption staying elevated with increased required for on-road mobility and higher vehicle sales.
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