OPEC cuts India’s 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 40,000 barrels per day
OPEC has lowered its 2026 oil demand growth forecast for India to 40,000 barrels per day, citing shifts in market projections. Despite this, transportation fuels like gasoline and diesel are expected to remain primary drivers of demand.
Why it matters
Adjustments in oil demand forecasts impact national economic planning and energy policy for major emerging economies like India.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lowered its forecast for India’s oil demand growth in 2026 to 40,000 barrels per day (b/d), from 60,000 b/d projected in its September report.
On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, India’s oil demand is expected to rise by around 40,000 b/d to 5.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, according to OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report.
OPEC has also trimmed its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 0.2 mb/d, down from 0.4 mb/d estimated in its previous assessment. However, it has raised its projection for global oil demand growth in 2027 to 2.6 mb/d, from 2.4 mb/d forecast last month.
Its outlook for India’s oil demand growth in 2027 remains unchanged.
Transportation fuels, particularly gasoline and diesel, are expected to remain the primary drivers of India’s oil demand growth in 2026.
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