officials split on rates

Federal Reserve officials were split last month about the future of interest rates, with policymakers entertaining scenarios in either direction, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday. In Kevin Warsh 's first meeting June 16-17 as chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, participants saw outcomes where inflation could ease and allow lower rates, while others envisioned a scenario where price increases stay elevated and lead to hikes. During his post-meeting news conference, Warsh billed the debate as a "family fight" that ended with the committee unanimously voting to keep the Fed's benchmark funds rate anchored in a range between 3.5%-3.75%, where it has been for all of 2026. However, the minutes did not elaborate on any drama that had taken place and outlined divergent views from members without a bias to which way the committee was leaning. The dot-plot grid of individual members' expectations, in which Warsh did not participate, narrowly tilted toward one rate hike this year, then a cut in each of the following two years. Asked to judge their most likely scenario, "many participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year," the minutes stated.