Odds that the strait's traffic returns to normal drop on Kalshi
Market prediction platform Kalshi shows that the probability of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal levels by July 2027 has dropped below 50%. This decline follows continued US strikes against Iranian targets and ongoing regional instability.
Why it matters
The data reflects growing market anxiety regarding global supply chain disruptions and the potential for prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
Market odds on Kalshi for when the Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic will return to normal are below 50% as of Friday afternoon.
Chances that the strait's traffic flow is normal by July 2027 plummeted to 47% from nearly 70% in the past two days. The drop came after the U.S. launched a 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, with President Trump signaling a further "massive attack" against Iran in an interview with Axios on Thursday.
Odds of ship traffic resuming normally this year stand at 38%, while odds are only somewhat better, at 48%, that regular shipments will be reached before April 2027. Kalshi's event contract would resolve if the seven-day moving average of transit calls is above 60 in data verified by IMF Portwatch. The current seven-day moving average of transit calls is about 12 .
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