NZ First surge extends coalition lead, new poll shows

A new Taxpayers' Union Curia poll shows the New Zealand coalition government extending its lead, driven by a surge in support for New Zealand First. While National and Labour remain closely matched, the current polling suggests a path to power for the National-Act-NZ First bloc.
Why it matters
This poll provides critical insight into the shifting political landscape of New Zealand and the potential for future coalition government stability.
A new poll shows the coalition has slightly extended its lead over the left bloc thanks to a surge in support for New Zealand First, while both the major parties remain languishing in the 20s. The Taxpayers' Union Curia poll has National and Labour neck and neck: since its September results, National dropped to 28.5% (down 0.5 percentage points), while Labour rose to 28.2% (up 2.3). The Greens dipped slightly to 13.3% (down 0.6), while NZ First rocketed to 12% (up 3.6). Act is on 9.2% (down 1.3), Opportunity reached 4.8% (up 0.3) and Te Pāti Māori has dropped to 1.4% (down 0.6). On these numbers, National, NZ First and Act have a path to power with 65 seats. However, the left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 55 and be unable to form a coalition with Opportunity out of reach of Parliament.
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