Northern Ethiopia Fault Line and the TPLF’s Renewed Military Push - Horn Review
This article examines the historical context and ongoing instability in Northern Ethiopia following the 2020 conflict between the federal government and the TPLF. It highlights the incomplete implementation of the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement.
Why it matters
The stability of Ethiopia is critical to the Horn of Africa, and the failure to fully implement peace agreements poses a risk of renewed regional conflict.
Following the popular movements that swept parts of the country before 2018, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ascended to power in April 2018. The subsequent dissolution of the EPRDF in 2019 gave rise to the Prosperity Party. The TPLF rejected the merger of the former ruling coalition into the new party and retreated to its regional stronghold in Mekelle.
Tensions escalated in September 2020 when the TPLF unilaterally organized sub-national parliamentary elections in explicit defiance of a federal postponement mandated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The federal government declared the regional vote unconstitutional and null. Facing acute political isolation and a hardening of military posture on both sides, the escalating political and legal dispute reached a breaking point on November 3, 2020, when hostilities broke out at bases of the Ethiopian National Defense Force Northern Command in Tigray after an attack by TPLF forces, precipitating full scale conventional war.
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