‘Normal’ July rain defies forecast of El Nino impact
India's July monsoon rainfall reached near-normal levels, defying initial forecasts of a significant deficit caused by El Niño. Experts suggest that climate change and warming oceans are now overriding traditional weather patterns, leading to more unpredictable and extreme rainfall events.
Why it matters
The shift in monsoon behavior challenges existing climate models, making it harder for authorities to predict agricultural impacts and disaster risks in a warming world.
India’s monsoon has delivered a surprise this July, defying forecasts of below-normal rainfall despite a strengthening El Nino and reinforcing scientists’ warnings that climate change is altering the country’s most important weather system, report Chittaranjan Tembhekar & Gaurav Talwar.As of July 30, India received 270.1mm of rains in July against a normal of 271.9mm, well within normal range. IMD had said July rainfall was likely to be less than 94% of long period average.However, rainfall distribution remained skewed, with central India receiving 29% excess in July while the east & northeast recorded a deficit of 30% and south 28%.The monsoon deficit since June 1 was 14%.
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