New Technique Predicts Massive Earthquake Locations

UC Riverside scientists have developed a way to identify where Earth's biggest earthquakes are most likely to occur, offering a powerful new tool for improving disaster preparations in some of the most dangerous seismic regions.

Rather than predicting the timing of an earthquake, the method identifies where stress has been building along major faults, so scientists can determine where a rupture will take place.

In a recent test detailed in a Geophysical Research Letters paper , the researchers found that their model highlighted the exact section of the Kamchatka subduction zone in eastern Russia where a massive earthquake later occurred.

The study was led by UCR geophysicists Gareth Funning and Axel Periollat, who study how Earth's surface slowly deforms as tectonic plates lock together before rupturing.

"Earthquakes capture headlines when they happen, but for years beforehand the fault is quietly accumulating strain," Funning said. "This strain can be measured."