Monsoon likely to be ‘below normal’ in Aug-Sept: IMD
The India Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal rainfall for the second half of the monsoon season due to the ongoing El Niño effect. Despite a strong July, officials warn that the overall agricultural outlook remains cautious.
Why it matters
Monsoon patterns are the primary driver of India's agricultural economy and food security, making these forecasts vital for policy and farming decisions.
NEW DELHI: Average rainfall in India during the second half of monsoon season (Aug-Sept) is most likely to be ‘below normal’, IMD said Friday, flagging the continuing risk of El Niño, which is associated with a weak monsoon.Last month, IMD had cited El Niño’s impact to forecast below normal rains in July. The month’s rainfall turned out to be normal due to plentiful showers in central India. The met department attributed this to “intra-seasonal variability”, saying a record 24 days were under the influence of ‘low pressure systems’ (LPS) in July against normal of about 13.5 days.“Four LPS were formed over Bay of Bengal that led to good rainfall from Odisha to Gujarat. We need to further analyse the reason (for better-than-expected July rains). These LPS couldn’t be captured by our long-range forecast model,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD chief.
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