MetMalaysia: Over 90pc chance of ‘Super El Nino’ by year-end, could rival 1997-1998 extreme
The Malaysian Meteorological Department warns of a 90% probability of a 'Super El Nino' event occurring between October and December 2026. This climate pattern is expected to bring extreme heat and dry conditions, potentially rivaling the severe events of 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.
Why it matters
Extreme climate events pose significant risks to agriculture, water security, and public health, necessitating advanced planning and mitigation strategies.
PUTRAJAYA, Aug 19 — The likelihood of El Nino, which typically brings hotter and drier conditions, reaching the ‘very strong’ or ‘Super El Nino’ category between October and December has risen to more than 90 per cent, according to Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) director-general Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip.
He said the forecast was based on a significant upward trend in the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) since the middle of the year, coupled with recent weekly observations showing sea surface temperatures more than 1.8 degrees Celsius above the climatological average.
“This situation indicates that El Nino is continuing to strengthen and is expected to peak towards the end of 2026.
“The probability of El Nino reaching the very strong category between October and December 2026 is high, at more than 90 per cent, based on the latest forecasts issued by international climate models,” he told Bernama.
Get smarter about the news
Sign up free for a feed built around what you actually care about, Dive Deeper research on any story, and the full text of every article.
Create free accountAlready have an account? Sign in