MacKenzie Scott's Giving, in Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs)
A new interactive model allows users to estimate the health impact of MacKenzie Scott's $26.3 billion in philanthropy using Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). The tool uses Monte Carlo simulations to account for uncertainty in causal evidence, ranging from skeptical to credulous perspectives.
Why it matters
It provides a transparent, data-driven framework for evaluating the real-world effectiveness of large-scale charitable giving.
How much health does $26.3 billion of philanthropy buy? Drag the assumptions and watch a Monte Carlo cost-effectiveness model rerun in your browser.
Drag to see the estimate move. The model reruns in your browser.
Skeptical weights each effect by how well its study identifies causation. Credulous trusts every cited effect at face value.
Central value (mode) of a 0.55–1.10 triangular draw for the share of the studied effect a marginal unrestricted grant delivers — the whole distribution is sampled, not this number alone.
Real 2026 dollars. Default inflates each year's gifts ($26.39B nominal, 2020–2025) to ~$30.3B with CPI-U.
The most important control is evidence stance : from skeptical (~70,000 QALYs — each effect weighted by how well its study identifies causation) to credulous (~200,000 — every cited effect at face value). That gap, not the dollar figure, is the real uncertainty.
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