Lula ahead in polls for Brazil’s first-round vote; runoff likely
Recent polls indicate that Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a narrow lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of the first-round presidential vote. If no candidate secures over 50% of the vote, the election will proceed to a runoff on October 25.
Why it matters
The election represents a pivotal moment for Brazil's political future, reflecting deep divisions between the incumbent leftist administration and the right-wing opposition.
A series of polls on Saturday (October 3, 2026) showed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva slightly ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro before Sunday’s first-round vote, and a close race in a likely runoff between the leftist incumbent and his right-wing challenger.
If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes — which exclude blank and null ballots — on Sunday (October 4, 2026), the two frontrunners advance to a second-round runoff on October 25.
First round (valid votes): Lula 47.8%, Bolsonaro 42.1%, Augusto Cury 3.6%, Ronaldo Caiado 3.4%, Renan Santos 1.7%, Romeu Zema 0.9%
MDA surveyed 2,007 people from September 30 to October 2; margin of error of 2.2% points.
First round (valid votes): Lula 45%, Bolsonaro 42%, Caiado 4%, Santos 3%, Cury 3%, Zema 1%.
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