Long-Run Effects of H-1B Immigration on the U.S. Economy (July 2026)
A new NBER working paper analyzes the long-term economic impact of H-1B visa expansions between 1999 and 2003. The study concludes that H-1B immigration boosted incomes for native workers in non-STEM fields through productivity gains rather than labor supply shifts.
Why it matters
This research provides empirical evidence on the economic ripple effects of high-skilled immigration, challenging common assumptions about labor market displacement.
LinkedIn Facebook Bluesky Threads Email Link Working Paper 35560 DOI 10.3386/w35560 Issue Date July 2026 We study the effects of H-1B immigration on U.S. industries that employ H-1B workers and their trading partners. Using a novel cross-industry design and the 1999–2003 expansion of the H-1B visa cap for identification, we find that H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, with gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations. Income gains propagate forward through supply chains to downstream industries but not backward to upstream industries, consistent with a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock.
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