Legendary economist Gary Shilling says consumer signals point to a recession in the next 12 months
Economist Gary Shilling warns of a 60-70% probability of a US recession within the next year, citing declining retail sales and consumer financial strain. He suggests that high interest rates and energy costs are pushing households to tighten spending, potentially leading to stagflation.
Why it matters
Consumer spending is a primary driver of the US economy, and warnings from high-profile economists can influence market sentiment and policy expectations.
Top economist Gary Shilling says he sees a 60%-70% chance the US enters a recession in the next year. Bloomberg/Getty Images Top economist Gary Shilling sees recession warnings coming from the US consumer . Americans are feeling the pressure of high energy prices and rising borrowing costs. Houesholds are beginning to tighten their wallets. Retail sales unexpectedly dropped in July. American shoppers are waving some red flags that hint at a recession in the next year , one legendary economist is warning. Gary Shilling , the Stanford economist and Merrill Lynch alum best-known for calling the dot-com bubble and 2008 housing crisis, is doubling down on his view that the US will likely enter a recession sometime in the coming 12 months. In a note this week, Shilling pointed to one particualr area of concern in the economy: the US consumer.
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