Kalshi traders see gas prices crossing $4 by end of July
Traders on the Kalshi platform have increased the probability of U.S. gas prices exceeding $4 per gallon by the end of July to 93%. This speculation follows rising oil prices and renewed U.S. military strikes against Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters
Rising fuel costs impact consumer inflation and broader economic stability, making energy market volatility a key concern for the U.S. economy.
Odds that gas prices will go above $4 per gallon by the end of this month have jumped to 90% from 56% on Kalshi in the last two days.
Kalshi traders now see a 93% chance that gas prices will go above $4 per gallon and 63% that it will go over $4.10. The contract, which asks what the gas price in the U.S. will be this month, will be verified by AAA.
Wednesday's national gas price is at $3.89, about 3 cents higher than Tuesday's, according to AAA.
Last month's average crossed $4, but the highest national gas price average this year was on May 21, when it hit $4.56. Traders on Kalshi see extremely low odds, less than a 5% chance, that gas prices will go over $4.50 again by the end of this month.
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