JPMorgan sees 10% annual bitcoin returns, topping stocks, bonds and gold over next decade
JPMorgan has issued its first-ever long-term return forecast for Bitcoin, projecting a 10% annualized return over the next decade. Despite this, the bank remains cautious, labeling Bitcoin a speculative asset rather than a reliable portfolio diversifier due to its high volatility.
Why it matters
As a major global financial institution, JPMorgan's formal inclusion of Bitcoin in its capital market assumptions signals increasing institutional legitimacy for cryptocurrency despite ongoing skepticism.
JPMorgan forecasted a base case of 10% annualized returns for bitcoin over the next 10 years in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report on Tuesday. The bank also set a bear case of -9.7% and a bull case of 17%.
The figure compared to projected 5.6%-6.6% growth in U.S. bonds, 7.5% and 7.7% in U.S. large and small-cap equities respectively and 5.5% in gold.
The report marks the first time JPMorgan has put a range on bitcoin returns in its research.
The New York based banking group has a complicated history with cryptocurrency, largely due to the association of CEO Jamie Dimon’s widely publicized views of bitcoin. Dimon famously described the world’s largest crypto as a “fraud” in 2017, a skeptical position he has reiterated with somewhat softer verbiage in recent years.
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