Jobless on the rise: Unemployment rate expected to land higher this week
Economists in New Zealand predict a rise in the national unemployment rate to 5.5% due to a cooling labor market and global economic uncertainty. The data suggests a 'low-fire, low-hire' environment as firms remain cautious despite improving conditions.
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Provides critical economic indicators for New Zealand's labor market and potential central bank policy shifts.
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Economists believe unemployment rose in the second quarter of the year as the labour force grew faster than the economy created jobs.
Forecasts are for the unemployment rate to land at 5.4% or 5.5% – up from 5.3% – when the latest figures are released on Wednesday, at 10.45am.
“We expect the unemployment rate to lift 0.2 percentage points to 5.5%, after some firms hit the pause button in the wake of heightened global uncertainty and oil price shock,” ANZ senior economist Miles Workman said.
“Employment is expected to be unchanged. We expect a 0.1 percentage point dip in the participation rate (to 70.3%) and modest growth in the working-age population.”
Overall, the second-quarter data was expected to paint a relatively soft picture of the labour market, he said.
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