Inside "Orcas": How 150 Traders Made Millions Betting On US Military Moves
Research by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective suggests over 150 traders on Polymarket International may have used inside US military information to make millions through 'long-shot' bets. This activity, dubbed 'Orcas,' raises concerns about insider trading and the potential for foreign adversaries to exploit prediction markets for intelligence.
Why it matters
This investigation exposes a potential vulnerability in prediction markets that could compromise national security and highlights the growing scrutiny on the industry regarding illicit activities and the use of classified information. It underscores the need for stronger regulations in emerging financial technologies.
More than 150 wallets on Polymarket International may have traded on inside US military information, attracting copycat bets and raising concerns that the market could broadcast signals exploitable by foreign adversaries, according to research published on Thursday. The analysis by the nonprofit research group Anti-Corruption Data Collective, first reported by Reuters, sheds new light on likely military insider trading on the prediction market and the broader risks such activity may pose. It comes as policymakers increase scrutiny of the booming industry following bets ahead of US military actions, including that of a US soldier charged in April with using classified information to bet on the removal in January of Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro, which lawmakers have said could hurt national security.Spokespeople for Polymarket, which was founded in 2020, did not respond to requests for comment.
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