Inside NBC News’ polling averages: Democrats enjoy biggest lead yet in the race for Congress

Democrats are heading into the final stretch of the 2026 midterms with their largest lead yet in the race for Congress and President Donald Trump’s approval rating at a significant low, according to NBC News’ newly released polling averages. A 9-percentage-point advantage for Democrats when it comes to control of Congress is part of a steady deterioration of the political environment for Republicans. The parties started the road to this November effectively tied in the weeks after President Donald Trump returned to office last year, but independents have gradually begun to prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress. And those voters have soured on Trump and his economic policies in particular. The congressional average, which stands at 52% to 43% after adjusting to a likely voter scale, measures whether Americans prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats or Republicans before things like individual races and candidates come into play.