India to have more elderly people later this century as fertility falls, age structure shifts: Moody’s
Moody’s Ratings reports that India's population is set to age significantly later this century due to fertility rates falling below replacement levels. This demographic shift is expected to challenge economic growth by reducing the workforce and consumer demand.
Why it matters
Demographic shifts are critical indicators for long-term economic policy and national creditworthiness.
India is likely to have a much older population later this century, as the country’s age structure is beginning to shift and fertility has fallen “below replacement,” Moody’s Ratings said on Tuesday (September 29, 2026).
Moody’s said population growth has long been a tailwind for economic growth and creditworthiness, but falling fertility is now changing that picture.
Fewer workers will limit productive capacity, while fewer households and consumers will weaken demand. As a result, countries will have to rely more on productivity to sustain growth.
Moody’s said the global fertility rate had declined from 4.9 children per woman in 1950 to about 2.2 today, only slightly above the replacement rate of 2.1.
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