India Is Getting Old Before Getting Rich, Will Turn 'Aged' In 16 Years: Moody's
A Moody's report warns that India is at risk of becoming an 'aged' society before achieving high-income status due to rapidly declining fertility rates. The country is projected to transition from 'aged' to 'super-aged' in just 16 years, necessitating a shift toward productivity-driven economic growth.
Why it matters
India's demographic transition poses a significant long-term challenge to its economic growth model, which has historically relied on a large, young workforce.
India spent decades worrying about having too many people. But the economic challenge now emerging is almost the opposite.
Fewer Indians are being born, fertility has fallen below the replacement level, and the country's age structure is starting to change, according to the latest Moody's report. The result will not be visible overnight. But over the coming decades, India will have more elderly people and, eventually, a smaller proportion of people in the working-age population.
As per the report, India entered the "ageing" category around 2024. It is projected to become "aged" around 2049 and "super-aged" around 2065. That's only 16 years from aged to super-aged. To compare, the US will take 19 years and Indonesia 29.
Think about what that means. Japan and Europe had generations to adjust. They got rich first, then got old. India is at the risk of getting old before becoming rich.
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