If history is any indication, expect some goals in the World Cup final between Argentina and Spain
The upcoming World Cup final between Argentina and Spain is analyzed through historical goal-scoring trends and player milestones. Lionel Messi is set to become the oldest field player to appear in a World Cup final.
Why it matters
The World Cup is a major global sporting event with significant cultural and economic impact.
In the 22 previous World Cup men's finals (which would include the 1950 match between Uruguay and Brazil that technically wasn’t a final, but decided who won the World Cup), the winning team has averaged 2.6 goals in the title matchup. The losing team has averaged 1.1 goals.
The two most recent World Cup finals have been offensive slugfests, with a combined 12 goals. France beat Croatia 4-2 in 2018, while Argentina and France tied 3-3 in 2022 (before Argentina prevailed in a penalty shootout).
Teams scoring at least two goals have won the World Cup title 17 times; there have been eight instances of a team scoring at least two goals in the final and still falling short.
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