IEA Warns Renewed U.S.-Iran Conflict Could Upend Oil Surplus Forecast

Despite the tentative recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the first build-up in global stocks since the war began, this week's re-escalation of the U.S.-Iran hostilities could flip the outlook for an oil market surplus for next year, the International Energy Agency said on Friday. Oil prices have plunged since the United States and Iran signed the memorandum of understanding MoU in the middle of June, with North Sea Dated prices down by $31 per barrel in June to $68 a barrel by early July, their lowest since January and $2 per barrel below pre-war levels. "An escalation in hostilities on 7-8 July, however, clouds the outlook and could upend the forecast that sees the market flipping to a surplus next year," the IEA said in its closely watched Oil Market Report for July.