Goldman Sachs Says Oil Could Surpass $120 a Barrel if Hormuz Disruptions Don't Ease. Here's What That Means for Oil Stocks.
Goldman Sachs analysts warn that Brent crude oil prices could exceed $120 per barrel if geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt supply chains. While the bank's base case assumes de-escalation, the current instability poses a significant upside risk to global energy costs.
Why it matters
Rising oil prices directly impact global inflation and the profitability of energy-dependent industries.
Goldman Sachs sees a potential return of triple-digit crude prices on the horizon if disruptions to oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz don’t ease soon. Analysts at the investment bank estimate that Brent crude oil, the global benchmark price, could top $120 a barrel next quarter and average more than $100 a barrel next year if that key waterway remains disrupted. The recent increase in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran has already driven Brent up over $90 a barrel, a roughly 30% surge from its recent bottom in the low $70s, when it appeared that the two sides had a deal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait.
Here’s a look at the investment bank’s current oil price scenarios and what they mean for oil stocks .
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