Gold smuggling hits 50 tonnes in India as 15% import duty widens price gap
India's gold smuggling has surged to 50 tonnes in the September quarter following an increase in import duties to 15%. While consumer spending on gold remains resilient, high prices and tax-driven price gaps are shifting market dynamics toward unofficial channels.
Why it matters
The data illustrates how aggressive fiscal policy can inadvertently fuel black markets and undermine official trade volumes.
India, the world’s second-largest gold market, is seeing a significant change in the way gold enters the country. The increase in import duty from 6% to 15% has made official imports more expensive, prompting a sharp rise in unofficial supplies. At the same time, record gold prices are putting pressure on consumer demand.According to a World Gold Council report, gold smuggling is estimated to have climbed to around 50 tonnes in the September quarter, compared with just three tonnes in the same period a year earlier. The surge highlights how higher import costs have had unintended consequences for the market.Gold smuggling upGold demand recovered 24% sequentially to 162 tonnes in the previous quarter, supported largely by seasonal jewellery purchases. However, demand remained 29% below its year-ago level, as high prices continued to deter many buyers.Spending patterns told a different story.
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