Gold price prediction today: Where are gold prices headed?

Gold price prediction today: The medium-term case for investment in gold remains intact, despite recent fall in prices, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Let's take a look at his analysis and outlook:Gold witnessed a sharp reversal last week, falling nearly 3% towards the end, posting its steepest weekly decline in several weeks after Fed Chair Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech reinforced the view that US monetary policy may remain restrictive for longer. Markets interpreted Warsh’s remarks as distinctly hawkish after he emphasized that underlying inflation has not improved sufficiently and reiterated that restoring price stability remains the Federal Reserve’s top priority.As a result, expectations for a September rate hike increased significantly, with CME FedWatch showing the probability of a 25bps increase rising to around 57% from nearly 35% just a day earlier.The shift in interest-rate expectations pushed US Treasury yields sharply higher, with the 10Y yield approaching 4.7%, while the US dollar recorded its strongest weekly gain in several weeks. The combination of higher yields and a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold, triggering broad-based profit booking across precious metals.Despite the correction, the broader medium-term investment case for gold remains supported by concerns surrounding rising US fiscal deficits, record government debt levels and ongoing Treasury market interventions, which continue to underpin the long-term “debasement trade.”Geopolitical risks also remain elevated following reports of Iranian attacks on US forces in Jordan, keeping safe-haven demand in the background. Looking ahead, investor focus will shift to upcoming US inflation and labor market data, which are expected to play a critical role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision and the near-term direction of gold prices.Gold has entered a corrective phase after failing to sustain above the recent rally highs near Rs 163,000–166,000. The sharp pullback from the upper Bollinger Band indicates profit-booking after the strong upside move seen over the previous weeks.Despite the recent decline, the broader trend remains constructive as prices continue to trade above the 20-day average, suggesting that the current weakness is more of a correction within an uptrend rather than a complete trend reversal. The Rs 154,000–155,000 zone will remain crucial for determining whether buyers regain control or whether the correction deepens further.From the Bollinger Bands perspective, the 20-day moving average is placed at Rs 155,197, while the upper band stands at Rs 165,769 and the lower band at Rs 144,624. Gold is currently trading slightly below the middle band, indicating weakening short-term momentum. A sustained move back above Rs 155,200 could improve sentiment and pave the way towards Rs 160,000 and Rs 165,800. However, failure to hold above current levels may keep pressure on prices in the near term.Based on the recent swing low near Rs 140,000 and the recent high around Rs 166,000, the key Fibonacci retracement levels are placed near Rs 159,900 (23.6%), Rs 156,000 (38.2%), Rs 153,000 (50%), and Rs 150,000 (61.8%). The Rs 153,000–150,000 zone is expected to provide strong support during the week.Overall, the weekly bias remains neutral to mildly bullish. Holding above Rs 153,000–150,000 could attract fresh buying interest, while a break below this zone may extend the correction towards Rs 145,000.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)Get the latest Business News and Live updates. Download the TOI app.