Gold price prediction: After worst quarter in 13 years, will gold continue to fall?

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices will continue to be under pressure with rate hike expectations in place, with near-term outlook negative, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.Gold ended Q2 of calendar year 2026 down nearly 14%, its worst quarterly performance since 2013 as expectations of higher US interest rates, easing US-Iran tensions, a stronger US dollar, and resilient US economic data reduced safe-haven demand. After touching a record high above $5,600/oz in January, spot gold has corrected nearly 29%, with elevated Treasury yields continuing to weigh on the non-yielding metal.The weakness has extended into the new quarter, with gold falling for a fifth consecutive week and slipping below $3,980/oz, its lowest level since November. Hawkish Fed commentary, firm US macro data, and a stronger dollar continue to pressure prices, while the recent Death Cross (50-DMA below 200-DMA) reinforces the bearish technical outlook.Physical demand has improved in India as lower prices attracted buyers, although Chinese demand remains subdued. Meanwhile, global gold ETFs witnessed net outflows of over 38 tonnes during the week ended 26 June, reflecting continued investor caution amid higher-for-longer rate expectations.Focus for This WeekMarkets will closely monitor US Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rate, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, FOMC commentary, Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index for further clues on the Fed's policy path. Investors will also track developments in the US-Iran negotiations, broader geopolitical developments, and ETF flows to assess whether the recent correction is attracting fresh investment demand or whether higher-for-longer rate expectations continue to pressure bullion.Technical Levels & Near-Term OutlookGold (Spot) CMP: $3,975/ozSupport: $3,880 / $3,800Resistance: $4,170 / $4,300MCX Gold CMP: ₹1,41,000Support: ₹1,37,700/ ₹1,34,800Resistance: ₹1,48,000 / ₹1,52,600Gold Price OutlookPrecious metals are likely to remain under pressure as long as expectations of tighter US monetary policy persist. However, after the recent sharp correction, short-covering could support prices in the near term if incoming US data softens the rate outlook. But overall bias remains negative for Gold. Silver is likely to remain in a range-bound but in a volatility-supported phase, where downside is relatively cushioned after the recent sharp fall, while upside moves will depend on easing real yields or sustained dollar softness.International Silver CMP: $57.57/ozSupport: $54 / $52Resistance: $60/ $64MCX Silver CMP: ₹2,23,800 (Sept contract)Support: ₹2,10,000/ ₹2,02,000Resistance: ₹2,33,000 / ₹2,48,800(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)Get the latest business news and top stories. Download the TOI App.Ready to Make a Smarter Property Decision? Build Your Legacy with TOI Homes.