Global warming will breach 1.5°C – but deep, fast cuts can still bring it back
The UN's 2026 Emissions Gap Report warns that global warming is set to exceed 1.5°C but emphasizes that aggressive emission cuts can still reverse this trend by the end of the century. Achieving this requires significant reductions in emissions starting immediately.
Why it matters
The report provides a critical roadmap for international climate policy and underscores the urgency of current mitigation efforts.
With global temperature rise set to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, countries “must pull out all the stops” and urgently cut emissions to minimize the overshoot and return to the internationally agreed threshold by the end of this century.
The recommendation comes in the Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return , published on Wednesday by the UN Environment Programme ( UNEP ).
It outlines a “lowest possible” overshoot scenario in which peak warming by roughly mid-century is limited to 1.7 to 1.8°C .
Achieving this requires slashing emissions by 18 per cent by the end of the decade, 45 per cent by 2035, and 69 per cent five years later, compared with 2025 levels.
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