Far from over: on the U.S.-Iran conflict

It took only 20 days for the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU), which promised to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and launch talks about outstanding issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme, to start unravelling. On Tuesday night, the U.S. carried out sweeping air strikes in Iran after three tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran struck American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain after which Mr. Trump declared that the ceasefire was over. While he is known for making exaggerated claims, the current crisis poses the biggest challenge to the peace process since the June 17 MoU. The crisis did not emerge overnight. From the outset, the agreement had three major sticking points — Israel’s war in Lebanon; Iran’s access to its frozen funds and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran sees Israel’s refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon, along with Washington’s push for a parallel trilateral framework involving the U.S., Lebanon and Israel, as violations of the spirit of the MoU. And, despite talks, Iran has yet to get access to its frozen funds. Finally, Iran appears determined to assert control over the Strait. It has opened a “safe passage route” along its coast, while the U.S. is backing an alternative route along Oman’s coast.