​Export gains: On India’s trade data for June

India’s trade data for June offers insights into how the country is weathering the West Asia crisis and the prospect of a deficient monsoon. The fact that the trade deficit jumped 430% in June would seem alarming. However, a deeper look at the composition of this deficit should ease a lot of that alarm. The bulk of the increase in the deficit was due to the sharp increase in merchandise imports in June. And within this, it was led by crude, gold, fertilizers and electronic goods. The value of crude oil imports rose 40% in June 2026, reflecting the skyrocketing prices of oil a few months earlier. Gold prices have also been rising as uncertainty over the West Asia situation persists. The doubling of gold import duties in May would also have pushed up prices in June.