Experts’ poll: RBI may hike rates by 0.25% in October policy amid inflationary pressures
Economists and bankers polled by PTI suggest the Reserve Bank of India may hike the repo rate by 0.25% in October 2026 to combat rising inflation. The potential move is driven by global central bank trends and energy price pressures resulting from the re-escalation of the West Asia conflict.
Why it matters
A shift in monetary policy would impact borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, signaling a potential end to the current interest rate pause.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to increase the repo rate by 0.25% in the October monetary policy review due to mounting inflationary pressure amid the re-escalation of the West Asia crisis and also the rate hikes by global central banks, according to economists and bankers.
If the RBI increases the rate in the upcoming policy, it would mark a reversal in the interest rate policy, which has witnessed rate cuts in 2025 and an extended pause thereafter, according to a PTI poll of 16 economists and bankers.
The last repo rate hike was in February 2023, when the RBI raised the rate by 0.25% to 6.50%; it then kept the rate unchanged through 2023-24 before beginning its rate-cut cycle in 2025. Currently, the RBI's policy repo rate stands at 5.25%.
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