EXPERT COMMENT: We are 100% sure El Niño will run until February 2027
The World Meteorological Organisation has issued a high-certainty forecast that the current El Niño event will persist until February 2027. Experts warn that this exceptionally strong weather pattern will likely cause significant global disruptions to agriculture, supply chains, and public health.
Why it matters
The unprecedented duration and intensity of this El Niño pose severe risks to global economic stability and environmental safety.
Celeste Saulo is the secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organisation.
WMO El Niño/La Niña Updates are the world’s most authoritative sources of information for governments and decision-makers. They are based on a consensus of models from WMO Global Producing Centres, climate prediction centres and experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services around the world.
These forecasts show an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 per cent that El Niño will persist through to February 2027. Nearly one hundred per cent. This is the first time that we have expressed such a degree of certainty.
El Niño is firmly established in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures in this region are already well above average and are continuing to rise. Sub-surface ocean temperatures are also exceptionally high – in some areas more than eight degrees Celsius above normal during July and early August.
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