Europe Was Supposed to Run Out of Jet Fuel by June. It Didn’t

Early warnings surrounding the Strait of Hormuz suggested that European airports and fuel markets could face physical shortages by the beginning of summer. Those shortages largely failed to materialise, revealing both the adaptability of global energy markets and their persistent tendency to price worst-case scenarios long before they occur. When the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed at the end of February, the first forecasts were dramatic. The disruption affected a route that had carried nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products before the conflict, while Gulf exporters had also supplied a significant share of the world's diesel, jet fuel and liquefied petroleum gas. Europe appeared particularly exposed because it imported far more aviation fuel than it produced and had relied heavily on supplies originating in the Middle East. By April, warnings of physical shortages were becoming increasingly specific.