Escalation trap: On the U.S. and the war with Iran
The conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has escalated following a breakdown in their ceasefire, leading to a Houthi-imposed blockade on Red Sea ports. This development threatens to severely disrupt Saudi oil exports and exacerbate regional instability already strained by the broader U.S.-Iran conflict.
Why it matters
The potential closure of critical maritime chokepoints like the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait poses a significant risk to global energy supplies and international shipping routes.
The decision by Yemen’s Ansar Allah, better known as the Houthis, to impose a blockade on Saudi Arabia signals that the war on Iran has entered its most dangerous phase. The Houthis, a close Iranian ally, had avoided direct involvement due to a fragile but functional ceasefire with Saudi Arabia, despite their controlling most of Yemen’s population centres, including capital Sana’a. That ceasefire effectively fell apart on July 13 when an airport in Sanaa was attacked by forces of “Yemen’s internationally recognised government”. Based in Saudi Arabia, this government maintains loyal forces inside Yemen, though the Houthis remain the country’s most powerful and influential political and military force. Blaming Riyadh for the attack, the Houthis announced on July 20 a blockade on ships using Saudi ports on the Red Sea.
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