election bid: Why Kaduna is more crucial than Lagos, Kano, Katsina, Rivers

WHEN strategists, who have started working over time, especially inside Aso Rock, spread the big electoral map of Nigeria on the table to plot President Bola Tinubu’s path to a second term in 2027, Kaduna State will enjoy a pride of place.

It is not Kano with the highest number of voters. It is not Lagos, the president’s political base. It is not even Katsina, home of the late President Muhammadu Buhari.

Pundits argue that Kaduna is small enough to ignore at a casual glance, but big enough to ruin your entire calculation.

Kaduna is what some describe as mini-Nigeria because of its diversity.

You have a largely Muslim Kaduna North and a predominantly Christian Kaduna South.

You have Hausa-Fulani co-existing with Bajju, Atyap, Ham, Gwong and over 60 other groups.

You have big urban problems and rural banditry in the same breath.