Election 2026: New poll puts Opportunity over 5% threshold
A new political poll in New Zealand shows the Opportunity Party reaching the 5% threshold, potentially making them a kingmaker in a tight election. The major parties, Labour and National, remain separated by only a small margin as the election nears.
Why it matters
The potential for a minor party to cross the threshold creates high uncertainty in the parliamentary outcome, impacting national governance.
Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong. Photo / Dean Purcell
The latest the Post /Freshwater Strategy political poll points to a neck-and-neck election result, showing the two major parties are just over a percentage point apart.
Labour has edged ahead on 29.7% with National close behind on 27.6%, while the Opportunity Party is poised as a potential kingmaker at 5.4%, just over the threshold to enter Parliament.
The results are holding steady from September’s poll as the election enters its final stretch, with early voting starting next week.
The Green Party remains stable at 14.3%, New Zealand First has dipped to 11.8%, Act is holding its position on 9% while Te Pāti Māori remains on the fringes at 2%.
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