El Niño Set to Drive Drier Conditions Across Southern Africa in 2026/27 Rainy Season
The Southern African Development Community forecasts a drier-than-usual rainy season for 2026/27 due to a strengthening El Niño event. This climate outlook suggests potential challenges for the region's agriculture and nature-based tourism sectors.
Why it matters
Climate-driven drought conditions significantly impact food security and economic stability for millions of people across Southern Africa.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has released its regional climate outlook for the 2026/27 rainy season, forecasting an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of central and southern Africa. Countries including Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, most of South Africa, Eswatini and Lesotho are expected to experience drier-than-usual conditions from October 2026 through to early 2027, while above-normal rainfall is favoured across eastern DRC, most of Tanzania, northern Malawi and Seychelles. Above-average temperatures are also forecast across most of the region.
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