El Niño could cause 1 200 extra heat deaths in SA by February, data shows

South Africa is projected to see 1 200 additional heat-related deaths between September and February 2027, as the current “super” El Niño pushes temperatures well above normal, with researchers warning that the world is seeing a glimpse of what climate change has in store.

The figure is based on data published by the Climate Impact Lab (CIL), a research consortium backed by the University of Chicago, which places South Africa among the top 50 countries most affected by El Niño-linked heat-related mortality.

The 1 200 deaths represent excess mortality – those above and beyond what South Africa would expect in a normal year – and are projected to result from the elevated temperatures El Niño is forecast to bring.