El Niño and Saharan Dust Silence Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season is experiencing a quiet start due to the combined effects of a strong El Niño and Saharan dust. These factors are creating unfavorable conditions for storm development, leading experts to predict one of the least active seasons in recent years.
Why it matters
Understanding these climate patterns is crucial for disaster preparedness and managing the economic impact of extreme weather events.
The basin has only seen three named storms since the start of hurricane season in June, a trio of weak and largely disheveled tropical storms. One or two additional tropical storms are possible through the middle of August as the season struggles against a bevy of unfavorable conditions.
They include this year’s El Niño, which is on its way to making history as sea surface temperatures soar to unprecedented heights across a critical swath of the Pacific Ocean, as well as persistent puffs of dry, dusty air that are blowing off the coast of Africa.
Together, these distant forces are working to stifle any opportunity for tropical storms to develop across the Atlantic basin. Forecasters now expect one of the quietest hurricane seasons in years, with fewer than 10 named storms likely to sneak through the unfavorable conditions.
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