Economists say the recovery has resumed ... do you believe them? - Liam Dann
Economists in New Zealand are signaling that the country's economic recovery is underway, citing improved inflation data and business confidence. However, the author notes a disconnect between these expert forecasts and the financial reality experienced by average households.
Why it matters
This highlights the tension between macroeconomic indicators and the lived experience of citizens during periods of economic instability.
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A series of economic releases last week declared the recovery had resumed. Photo / 123rf
While I usually like to be ahead of the curve on making these kinds of calls, I’m still feeling burned by the false starts of the past three years.
I’m highly conscious of a “cry wolf” risk around economic forecasting.
But for all that, I can’t ignore that almost every major economist covering New Zealand has decided it’s time to talk recovery again.
This next bit would probably work better as a late-night news show video montage of soundbites.
You’ll just have to imagine that as you read this snapshot of upbeat economic consensus – all released in the past week.
I might have missed a few, but you get the picture.
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