Ecological specialization in vectors alters transmission thresholds and endemic dynamics in multi-host, multi-vector systems
A new study explores how mosquito biting behavior—whether they are opportunistic or host-specific—significantly impacts the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. The research demonstrates that these behavioral assumptions can double the basic reproduction number in epidemiological models.
Why it matters
Accurate modeling of disease transmission is essential for public health officials to design effective interventions and predict spillover risks for diseases like dengue and yellow fever.
Modeling vector-borne pathogens that circulate among several host and vector species hinges on how the force of infection (FOI) is defined. In an i ‐host, j ‐vector susceptible-infectious-recovered modeling framework I compare two common FOI denominators: (i) a weighted form in which vectors bite preferred hosts disproportionately, and (ii) an unweighted form that assumes opportunistic biting. Using identical parameter sets calibrated to primate– Aedes data from Kédougou (Senegal), the weighted FOI doubles the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) relative to the opportunistic FOI and can shift R 0 across the epidemic threshold. It also produces higher long-run prevalence and larger oscillations. Both autonomous formulations undergo a forward transcritical bifurcation at R 0 = 1. Selecting an ecologically realistic biting assumption is therefore critical for predicting sylvatic-to-urban spillover risk and designing interventions in multi‐host systems.
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