East Africa: Africa's Greater Horn Region Is Facing a Looming Polycrisis Fueled By Conflict, Prices, Climate and Disease
The Greater Horn of Africa faces a potential humanitarian polycrisis driven by the combined effects of El Niño, regional conflicts, and disease outbreaks like Ebola. Experts warn that these overlapping factors could lead to catastrophic food insecurity and displacement through 2027.
Why it matters
The convergence of climate-driven drought and flooding with geopolitical instability threatens the livelihoods of millions in a vulnerable region.
The impacts of a strengthening El Ni o and the lingering effects of the war in Iran highlight two separate and seemingly unrelated global hazards. But in the Greater Horn of Africa, an area already beset by prolonged crisis and conflict , these factors are combining with others to potentially create a major, multicountry polycrisis.
As experts in famine , conflict and humanitarian crises , our concerns about such a grave risk for the region in the second half of 2026 and into 2027 are based on a series of overlapping trends that include El Ni o, the broader effects on food prices and fertilizer of the Iran war, internal conflicts and other localized factors. We fear the consequences could be catastrophic.
Get smarter about the news
Sign up free for a feed built around what you actually care about, Dive Deeper research on any story, and the full text of every article.
Create free accountAlready have an account? Sign in