Democrats have high hopes for midterms, but polls have let them down before
The Democratic Party faces uncertainty in the upcoming US midterm elections despite favorable polling data. Historical trends suggest that public opinion polls have frequently underestimated Republican performance, leading to skepticism about current projections.
Why it matters
Understanding the reliability of polling data is crucial for interpreting political forecasts and the potential shift in congressional power.
Image source, Getty Images By Anthony Zurcher North America correspondent Published 49 minutes ago The Democratic Party has high expectations as it heads into these pivotal US midterm elections.
A historically unpopular Republican president, an American public unhappy with the rising costs of food and bills, and months of favourable polls point to a good night for them on Tuesday.
Democratic candidates lead in well over the 218 seats needed to flip control of the lower chamber of Congress, the House of Representatives, the polls suggest. And they are tied or narrowly ahead in the key Senate races.
A recent New York Times poll had the Senate race in South Carolina, a state Donald Trump won by 18 percentage points in 2024, as a tie. Recent CNN surveys put the Democrats ahead in Texas, Kansas and Maine.
Get smarter about the news
Sign up free for a feed built around what you actually care about, Dive Deeper research on any story, and the full text of every article.
Create free accountAlready have an account? Sign in