Could Four Billion People Die at 3°C?
A report from the UK Institute and Faculty of Actuaries suggests that 3°C of global warming could lead to four billion deaths, though experts clarify this is a worst-case estimate rather than a scientific projection. The figure has gained attention due to its inclusion in a report on planetary solvency risks.
Why it matters
It highlights the difficulty of modeling climate-related mortality and the potential for extreme scenarios to be misinterpreted as definitive forecasts.
A patient receives emergency treatment at a Karachi hospital during a life-threatening heatwave on June 27, 2024.
Summary Mortality depends on exposure, vulnerability and adaptive capacity, making precise death tolls impossible to model. The four billion deaths at 3°C figure is not a forecast or modelled projection. The estimate of two billion deaths at 2°C is implausible. The timeframe for the 3°C / four billion deaths estimate is undefined. The four billion figure is an educated worst-case estimate, not a robust scientific projection. The proposition that four billion people or more would be dead if — and more likely, when — global warming reaches 3 degrees Celsius (°C) has gained some currency, mainly due to the 4DB (four billion dead) website and associated activities.
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