Container shipping under strain as IMF cuts trade growth forecast
The IMF has lowered its trade growth forecast for 2027, leading to concerns about overcapacity in the container shipping industry. Manufacturers are increasingly shifting production to Southeast Asia to bypass US-China trade tariffs, complicating global logistics.
Why it matters
The shift in global supply chains and slowing trade growth have significant implications for international shipping costs and economic stability.
The container shipping market is faced with the adverse situation of a slowdown in trade volume growth for 2027. The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report predicts a decline in world trade volume growth from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2027. In advanced economies, import demand is projected to be 5.0% in 2026 but soften to 4.2% in 2027. “This means that demand is not growing fast enough to absorb all the newly built vessel capacity entering service,” said Denmark’s research and analysis specialist Sea‑Intelligence. In issue 787 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, the company analysed the IMF October 2026 World Economic Outlook report, from a container shipping perspective. Direct bilateral trade between the US and China has also contracted because of the trade war.
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