Climate change increases dengue risk in Keralam; cases may rise by 20% by 2040, says study

Even as climate change is emerging as a significant driver of vector-borne diseases as it alters ecological and climatic conditions that influence mosquito proliferation and virus transmission, a study by the Centre for Climate Change Research at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, has confirmed strong seasonality in dengue transmission in Keralam. Nearly 60% of dengue cases in the State occur during the southwest monsoon (June-September) season, closely mirroring the State’s rainfall cycle.

The study, titled ‘Climate-informed dengue prediction and future risks under a changing monsoon climate in Keralam,’ identified rainfall, humidity and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the key drivers of dengue transmission. It also pointed out that climate change and shifting monsoon patterns can increase dengue incidence in the State.